add modification to blog post; vars to emacs

diff --git a/blog/horses.org b/blog/horses.org
index 7c688345857d1e1737bfc53b081de152f950774d..3ffda71de780642d7b784835203d65cc7d32e480 100644 (file)
--- a/blog/horses.org
+++ b/blog/horses.org
@@ -46,6 +46,39 @@ the put options are priced in, in which case the fact that it's a bubble should
 EMH. Therefore, there's always a way to make money off of your twitter prediction! Will you? I
 believe that should be our measure of how much we should continue to believe in people on the
 internet.
+** Napkin Math
+Suppose we have a stock that's worth $100 and the intrinsic value is $1 (in the case of a couple
+of current assets said to be bubbles, for example bitcoin, this 100x difference is /nothing/, as
+people would like to believe that bitcoin is worth $0 -- just like Lehman brothers was in 2009).
+The market thinks there is a 1% chance that this asset will go to $1 in the next 10 years,
+whereas you, an intelligent investor, believe the real probability is 40% -- significantly higher
+than the market wisdom suggests. Because we (and the market) regularly believe in the EMH,
+we say that the market pricing for puts reflects the expected value of a put (in other words,
+market participants cannot gain money on average by trading puts under their own assumption
+that there is a 1% chance that in the next 10 years, there will be a $99 price drop).
+The average amount of time that you would need to wait in order for one of the contracts to take
+effect, given you're in the universe where the contract /does/ take effect would be 5 years, given
+that the probability that you wait $n$ years is uniform.
+
+$5 \cdot 52 = 260$ weeks, so in total, this operation would cost $260x$ on average, where $x$ is the
+price of the put share, given that the contract actually falls through. Your net revenue
+in this situation would be $99 - 260x$ per contact. If your share doesn't fall through,
+you will be paying $520x$ on average. Now to set up the expected value equation
+(which, using our simplified model, our expected value should be 0):
+\begin{align}
+\frac{99 - 260x}{100} - \frac{99 \cdot 520x}{100} = 0 \\
+\frac{99}{100} - 2.6x - \frac{514.8x} = 0 \\
+2.6x + 514.8x = .99 \\
+517.4x = .99 \\
+x = \frac{.99}{517.4} \\
+x = 0.0019
+\end{align}
+given these assumptions, put options should be priced around .2 cents per week. The rest
+is left up to an exercise to the reader, but needless to say, this is a huge positive EV. Even
+if it were 10 or 20 cents per week, you'd still have a huge positive EV. So even for "regular"
+multimillionaires, this plan is totally feasible. If you have an idea to make money, it is
+likely that at least one multimillionaire would listen to you, or is already doing exactly
+this (buying puts).
 ** Economists as Market Participants
 When economists predict a recession or predict a Ponzi scheme or bubble, why don't they participate
 in the market place? The government has essentially infinite capital; they could roll put options

diff --git a/config/emacs.org b/config/emacs.org
index 64382ca32318fbc8e8f059dd3c1069fee1311af8..373a5e25d79a5765dafca15f0a169b5b3f1a6834 100644 (file)
--- a/config/emacs.org
+++ b/config/emacs.org
@@ -8,6 +8,13 @@ This is my Vanilla Emacs configuration, made to work with my NixOS configuration
 reason, you will not see :ensure t inside any use-package declaration, for emacs packages
 are all compiled natively and reproducibly on the NixOS side. This configuration uses the
 emacs-lisp language only to configure variables for said packages, for the most part.
+** User
+Change these variables:
+#+begin_src emacs-lisp
+  (setq system-email "ret2pop@gmail.com")
+  (setq system-username "prestonpan")
+  (setq system-fullname "Preston Pan")
+#+end_src
 ** UI Elements
 This section contains important UI elements and starting customization variables to make
 emacs work in a semi-sane way and make it not look ugly:
@@ -437,8 +444,8 @@ Ivy is a pretty cool general program for displaying stuff:
 ** IRC
 #+begin_src emacs-lisp
   (setq
-   erc-nick "prestonpan"
-   erc-user-full-name "Preston Pan")
+   erc-nick system-username
+   erc-user-full-name system-fullname)
 
   (defun prestonpan ()
     (interactive)
@@ -621,8 +628,8 @@ Make LaTeX a litle better:
 Email in emacs can be done with Mu4e.
 #+begin_src emacs-lisp
   ;; SMTP settings:
-  (setq user-mail-address "ret2pop@gmail.com")
-  (setq user-full-name "Preston Pan")
+  (setq user-mail-address system-email)
+  (setq user-full-name system-fullname)
   (setq sendmail-program "msmtp"
        send-mail-function 'smtpmail-send-it
        message-sendmail-f-is-evil t
@@ -644,7 +651,7 @@ Email in emacs can be done with Mu4e.
     (setq mu4e-compose-dont-reply-to-self t)
     (setq mu4e-change-filenames-when-moving t)
     (setq mu4e-get-mail-command "mbsync ret2pop")
-    (setq mu4e-compose-reply-ignore-address '("no-?reply" "ret2pop@gmail.com"))
+    (setq mu4e-compose-reply-ignore-address (add-to-list '("no-?reply") system-email))
     (setq mu4e-html2text-command "w3m -T text/html" ; how to hanfle html-formatted emails
            mu4e-update-interval 300                  ; seconds between each mail retrieval
            mu4e-headers-auto-update t                ; avoid to type `g' to update

diff --git a/journal/20250106.org b/journal/20250106.org
new file mode 100644 (file)
index 0000000..c6be666
--- /dev/null
+++ b/journal/20250106.org
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+#+TITLE: Daily Journal
+#+STARTUP: showeverything
+#+DESCRIPTION: My daily journal entry
+#+AUTHOR: Preston Pan
+#+HTML_HEAD: <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="../style.css" />
+#+html_head: <script src="https://polyfill.io/v3/polyfill.min.js?features=es6"></script>
+#+html_head: <script id="MathJax-script" async src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/mathjax@3/es5/tex-mml-chtml.js"></script>
+#+options: broken-links:t
+* Monday, 06 January 2025
+** 20:54 
+Today, I'm very tired. I have a couple things that I wanted to do (i.e. update the nullring
+webpage), but I'm slow at doing this, and I think I'm going to have to automate it with
+Javascript. I'm not having the best day intellectually, but that's okay.
+
+I need to start doing other things soon. Either I will start actually programming, or I will
+focus on making more music and media. Either way, I'm sure it will come, and I don't need to
+think so much during bad days. My day otherwise wasn't actually that bad. I didn't feel
+super terrible, but it's a struggle to be consistent. That being said, I don't think consistency
+is the ultimate goal even if I want to be moreso. I just want to make sure I'm working towards
+my goals at the end of the day.